Another Year, Another Race

It's that time again, people. The studios have submitted their animated features to the Academy Awards… 19 to be exact...

The players, and they chances they have at being nominated:

The Apostle - No, not the world's very first animated feature film ever made (it's lost forever) that happened to be unearthed, but rather a Spanish stop-motion (!) animated film from last year, a visually interesting one to boot. But it being an awesome film does not guarantee a nomination that easy. 30% chance…

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - While it wasn't as warmly received as the first film, it still got good reception thus it has a chance to get a nomination. The first didn't get one, though - 2009 was a very, very strong year for animation. 40% chance...

The Croods - Reviews were generally positive but mixed for this film, audiences and animation fans on the other hand really seemed to love it. (The acclaim it's getting from those circles truly baffles me.) It has a good chance at getting a nomination, since competition isn't that strong this year. Rise of the Guardians and Madagascar 3 had a lot to go up against last year. This year, one of those two definitely would've gotten in. 40% chance...

Despicable Me 2 - The first film was shut out of the 2010 race because of the amount of nominations, I'm not sure if this will make the cut either. It could make it, because it did get good reviews and was a really big success. 40% chance...

Epic - One animated film of quite a few that got middling reception this year. Blue Sky only had one nominee in their history, Ice Age. I don't think this will make the cut. 20% chance...

Ernest and Celestine - This will be the Cat in Paris/Chico & Rita of 2013. It's gotten a lot of acclaim, but there is one thing… The Academy didn't nominate a single non-US/UK film last year, despite some strong entries like The Rabbi's Cat and The Painting… But the offerings on the American front are mostly underwhelming, so this does have a very, very good shot. 85% chance...

The Fake - A South Korean-produced drama (hand-drawn, obviously), but the Academy is picky when it comes to foreign films. 35% chance...

Free Birds - Fat chance, given the film's poor critical reception. 0% chance...

Frozen - Very high chance, given Disney's recent streak of good films (Tangled would have definitely been nominated in 2010 had their been five slots) and the very positive early reception. Pretty much a guarantee at this point. This may be the one to take it home, if it's better received than Monsters University, the best-received American animated film of the year. 100% chance...

Khumba - The studio behind Zambezia made this film (that was a runner last year), it's actually their second film. Again, given the Academy's picky ways of choosing foreign films if choosing any at all, this probably won't make it in. I will say, the character design is nice. 10% chance...

The Legend of Sarila - A Canadian-produced computer animated film about Inuits trying to find a new home so they don't starve… The story seems okay, but the animation looks very dated. I got an Ice Age vibe from seeing the human characters. 10% chance...

A Letter to Momo - The second feature-length film from Hiroyuki Okiura, who worked on many well-known anime films from Ghost in the Shell to Paprika to Metropolis. But no Japanese animated film outside of Miyazaki/Studio Ghibli has a chance at getting nominated, but with the rule changes, it could sneak its way in. 40% chance...

Monsters University - It's Pixar and it got positive reception (the best of an any American animated film released this year so far), enough said. Winning chances are also very high. 100% chance…

Planes - Definite no. The polar opposite of this year's Disney and Pixar offerings. Received as a mediocre film, and it's a film that was meant to be a direct-to-video release. 0% chance...

Puella Magi Madoka Magica The Movie Part III: The Rebellion Story - That title is a mouthful, but this is an anime film based on a magical girl series. 10% chance...

Rio 2096: A Story of Love and Fury - This adult-oriented offering expectedly comes from Brazil. Visually interesting, that's for sure. 25% chance...

The Smurfs 2 - As the old saying goes, "When pigs fly…" 0% chance...

Turbo - It got okay critical reception, but I think the Academy would prefer The Croods if they wanted to pick one DreamWorks film. 20% chance...

The Wind Rises - Being Hayao Miyazaki's swan song, a definite yes. It may even just win given the rather underwhelming critical reception given to most of the American animation released this year, but it's not certain just yet because Frozen may be the best-received American animated film of the year. Anyways, this was a weak year in general so this is definitely landing itself in the nomination pool. 100% chance...

In all, I think this is what will end up happening…

Ernest and Celestine

Frozen

Monsters University

The Wind Rises

A Letter to Momo

The winner? Right now, I think it's down to two films: Frozen and The Wind Rises. Monsters University, if you ask me, won't easily win because the rules have changed. It's possible that the voters will have actually watched the non-Pixar films before the ceremony; if that were the case last year, Brave would not have won.

Ernest and Celestine could possibly get it, but when's the last time the Academy gave the little gold statue to an animated film released outside of the US and UK? Spirited Away got it for 2002, and that's it. But with them actually watching it, it could… It could…

A Letter to Momo is the least likely to win, it's there because a lot of the American competition was weak. I can see them choosing that over other 40% chance nominees like The Croods and Cloudy 2.

What do you think? What are your animated Oscar predictions? Sound off below and cast your vote in the poll!